How Will You Know When It's Time to Leave America?
Festina Lente ("Make Haste, Slowly"). Keep an eye on your own list of red flags and exit probabilities.
I just returned from almost two weeks in South America, a scouting trip in a wrapper that looked (mostly) like a normal family vacation. We were in Argentina and Uruguay.
They’re viable, fascinating, imperfect options.
Expatriation would have positive aspects, as well as ones that were unavoidably sad.
I think the greatest challenge wouldn’t be money, visas, or logistics.
It would be loneliness.
Once you realize that leaving is possible, and you could do it any time, it hits home that staying is a choice, just like leaving is. So how do you choose?
My personal objective is to develop conditions of finances, residency, and logistics such that as soon as possible, if we had to be gone in 30 days, we could make a relatively clean exit.
I believe those arrangements will be in place by late December of this year, most likely focused on Uruguay.
But even if exit was well-planned and well-structured, it would still hurt.
So how do you know when it’s the right time?
Our family is fortunate in that our race, religion, and the visible elements of our political profile make us relatively low on the regime’s target list. So we’re unlikely to need to flee soon for reasons of direct physical safety.
But why might we want to go?
I am repulsed by the regime, but I believe the current roster of elected officials in my Midwestern State are broadly (although not always) pragmatic and reasonable. I don’t believe the regime is a legitimate constitutional government, but I believe my state’s government is still (presently) legitimate.
Further, while many “national scale” current events and things happening elsewhere in the country make me worried and sometimes even nauseous, the paradoxical reality is that life here in my little corner of what used to be a constitutional republic is actually really pleasant and good for my child. My work situation is a good one too.
That means a lot of my potential “red lines” for staying or going are more local in nature than similar lists you might see written by others.
Although their specific exit triggers are different, I don’t think they’re wrong.
That said, no one else is going to internalize all the positive and negative elements of staying or going - only you.
So use this list and the others to catalyze your own thinking, but never as substitutes for your own judgment about your own life.
Red Lines: Describing the Risks
My non-exhaustive list of “red lines” includes:
Posse Comitatus Issues. A sustained military occupation of my (blue) Midwestern City in our (red) Midwestern State, similar to what the regime did in Los Angeles three weeks ago. (I’d define “sustained” as lasting at least 30 days, and I’d be even more concerned if the occupation was against the wishes of my state’s governor.)
Third Term. Trump runs for a third term, especially if the Supreme Court finds some hyper-narrow pedantic line of reasoning to let him do it (which wouldn’t surprise me).
Elections Called Off. The 2026 midterms or the 2028 general election are suspended, delayed, or canceled by the regime, especially in a way that ignores or contravenes my state’s authority over its own elections.
Regime “Wins” Midterms. The regime consolidates control even further in the 2026 midterms, either by manipulating the elections and/or the vote count, or because (for whatever reason) voters turn out to actually like fascism, and want more of it. This would suggest that the duration of our current Dictatorship Problems could be long-term, or permanent, and not just some version of a time-limited problem.
Habeas Corpus Suspension. Suspension of the writ of habeas corpus in my Midwestern State.
Loss of Birthright Citizenship. The Supreme Court denies birthright citizenship. (This is a big one for me; I practiced as a lawyer for almost two decades, and the legal “arguments” for ignoring the plain text and history and subsequent interpretation of the Fourteenth Amendment are so spurious and risible that if the justices will allow this, then there is literally nothing the regime wants that they won’t do.)
Capital Controls. History illustrates that most other regimes using policies like those of our current regime also eventually begin using capital and/or exchange controls. Even when they start “small,” they usually grow from there.
History is full of examples of how people who hold assets only in their home country, when their home country is doing capital and exchange controls, tend to get crushed by inflation and capital flight.
When formerly wealthy people are stuck in the sprint to the bottom, by the time the storm passes, they can be trapped, with no remaining options. (The more of my balance sheet is offshore by the time capital controls start, the less I have to weigh this as a decision factor.)Major War. Imminent or then-happening war against a peer or near-peer power (e.g., China, Russia).
I don’t want to be in the Northern Hemisphere when the nuclear weapons light off, or when the power grid goes down, or when drone swarms destroy the infrastructure we depend on.
The safest place to be will be somewhere that is nobody’s enemy. Each hemisphere is relatively distinct from an atmospheric circulation perspective, and there would be much less fallout south of the equator.Loss of Medical Care. Significant and sustained inability to obtain medical care I deem reasonable and necessary. I have read it may be possible to obtain vaccines in Canada while a tourist, if the regime stops approving them for use here. If this works out, it may lessen the significance of this variable as a stand-alone red line.
Local Regime-Aligned Paramilitaries. Vigilante paramilitary groups assuming a predatory law enforcement role in my Midwestern City, especially if this is associated with protection rackets or bribery.
Citizens Put Into the Concentration Camps. Confirmed, substantial-scale detention of American citizens (especially people who look like me) in the emerging contractor-run gulag archipelago of concentration camps (e.g., “Alligator Alcatraz”).
(The phrase “concentration camp” is accurate, as distinguished from “death camp” or “extermination camp”.
As of now, we seeing analogues to Dachau, Sachsenhausen, and Flossenburg, but not yet to Treblinka or Auschwitz.)AI- or Recession-Linked Sustained Unemployment. Sustained unemployment without prospects to the upside. One driver of this could be a very deep recession; another could be widespread AI-related job loss.
I think it would make sense to search for other opportunities for a maximum of about six months - not longer than that. I would begin potentially permanent unemployment with a finite base of capital.
If that capital’s enough to make it (at least until I started drawing whatever was left of Social Security at age 62) in a low cost place (like somewhere in Latin America), but will be depleted in a high-cost place like the US, it makes sense to cut losses and leave before the capital is all gone, and there aren’t any options left.
This shows the critical importance of obtaining visas or residencies while you still have money, income, assets, and a job.
Do it before the major recession, before you need it, before AI eliminates you.
Because as of now, there are still places that you can get into.
Several years from now, if you’re yet another unemployed American without assets, that will not be the case.
Think of mobility like a standby line of credit; if you don’t set it up when you don’t need it, when you do need it, no one will give it to you.
Risk Probabilities: How Much Do the Red Flags Matter?
So, what are the probabilities? Let’s try to range-bound them, at least.
Posse Comitatus Issues: I put this at a 20% probability before 2028 (with regard to my relatively sleepy Midwestern City). If it happens, let’s say there is a 30% chance I will decide it warrants leaving. Combined exit trigger level: 6%
Third Term: I put this at a 12% probability. With his adult diapers, catheter, and blotchy hands, I think Trump is aging hard, and his sons will coax him to exit and either try to take it for one of themselves, or hand it to Vance as their controlled muppet.
If Trump tries for it, I think there is a 50% chance his running dogs on the Supreme Court will justify it, however they need to.
If he is sworn in for a third term, I think there is a 70% chance I will leave. Not so much for him qua him, but rather for what this event would signify about the dictatorship’s longevity and entrenchment. Combined exit trigger level: 4.2%
Elections Called Off: It’s hard to know how likely this is, but it would be easy to stage a false-flag terror attack, or wait for something stochastic the Iranians will inevitably do after we bombed them, and then use it as a pretext to indefinitely postpone elections.
Let’s say this is, conservatively, a 15% probability. If this happens, there is a 70% chance I will leave. Combined exit trigger level: 10.5%.
Regime Wins Midterms: If the elections are fair, I have a hard time seeing how the regime wins, but nothing is impossible lately. Let’s call this a 25% probability. If it happens, then there is a 25% chance I will leave. Combined exit trigger level: 6.25%.
Habeas Corpus Suspension: This will probably happen soon and/or often on a localized basis, but I think Midwestern City is one of the last places it will happen.
Let’s call this on a locality-adjusted basis an 8% probability, with a 40% chance I leave if it happens.
My innate fear-factor about the writ being gone is high, but realistically speaking because I look, talk, and dress like people the regime likes, and because I have money, even though I am also highly educated, the odds of me being a near-term object of enforcement activity is relatively low.
If I were a higher likelihood target, I would assign a higher chance to leaving. Combined exit trigger level (for me): 3.2%
Loss of Birthright Citizenship: The legal arguments are so lopsided that even the Supremes may have a hard time getting there, as much as they want to be running dogs.
I put this at 2% underlying substantive possibility, multiplied by a 5x “running dog instinct” factor, for a 10% total probability of the regime’s target outcome.
If this happens there is a 30% chance I will leave. Combined exit trigger level: 3%.
Capital Controls: I think there is at least a 30% chance we will see capital controls (they are, after all, written into the plan for the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” from the Chairman of the regime’s Council of Economic Advisors).
It’s hard to know how severe they will be, at least at the outset. Expect to see a targeting of sovereigns to start, with corporates next, and individual investors last. But once it starts, it’s likely to expand.
If they happen, there is a 10% chance I will leave, especially if the knock-on effects are severe. Combined exit trigger level: 3%.
Major War: This is perhaps the biggest risk factor, in terms of severity. The regime’s friendliness with Russia might actually reduce risk, at least directly relating to us, while increasing the risk of something starting along NATO’s border in eastern Europe, which would begin small but run major escalation risks.
Some commentary I’ve read on the Fordow bombings we did suggests that they will deter the Chinese Communists from invading Taiwan. Other commentary suggests that they won’t actually need to invade Taiwan; rather, they can simply blockade and destabilize it instead.
I don’t have a strong sense of how all these factors might interact.
Let’s put the risk of a major war before 2028 at 20% (which seems conservative). But I prioritize not getting nuked very highly, so if war happens or is imminent, there is an 75% chance I will leave. Combined exit trigger level: 15%.
Loss of Medical Care: Access to vaccines seems likely to decline, and the long-term effects of how shrinking Medicaid revenues will force price hikes in the private-insurance part of the market, leading to cost-prohibitive coverage, are hard to pin down.
But they’re real.
The vaccine issue might be solvable with long-weekend tourism to Canada. Let’s put this at a 20% chance of occurrence, and only a 5% chance that, on a stand-alone basis, it would cause me to leave. Combined exit trigger level: 1%
Local Regime-Aligned Paramilitaries: Although this is happening already in immigrant-dense neighborhoods of cities like Los Angeles, it seems less likely to percolate here.
Let’s put this at a 10% chance, coupled with a 50% probability if it does happen that the paramilitaries will engage in blackmail/extortion etc., and a 50% chance I will choose to leave if this all comes to pass. Combined exit trigger level: 2.5%
Citizens Put Into Concentration Camps: This is already happening to Latino naturalized and even US-born citizens. But it isn’t happening (yet) to people who look like me.
If it starts happening to people like me (call this a 20% probability), and all the more if the regime goes on TV and Twitter to celebrate what it’s doing (a 90% probability, if they do do it), and if they do it at scale (more than, say, to more than 50 people) (let’s call this a 50% probability, if it starts happening in the first place), then there is a very high chance (80%) I will leave.
Combined exit trigger level: 7.2%.
AI- or Recession-Linked Sustained Unemployment: The AI maximalists say 30% to 50% of the white collar workforce will be eliminated by AI within 3 to 5 years.
Let’s say there is a 50% chance they’re right about this.
Let’s further stipulate that my job is “people” and “emotions” heavy, so I won’t be in the first round of cuts, but I could be caught up in second or third-order effects as mass unemployment spreads.
Let’s further say that if it happens, there would be a 60% chance I don’t find some sort of sufficient replacement employment within six months.
And that if all these events come to pass, there is a 90% chance I will leave, to adjust my cost structure to my impaired earning ability, and live off what my mid-career balance sheet could fund, at least until I started collecting Social Security (if there is any of that left). Combined exit trigger level: 10.8%.
The Sum of All Fears (Adding It Up…)
How do all these exit trigger probability levels stack?
The simple quantitative answer perhaps misses some important nuance - such as, if one of the events comes to pass, it’s likely several of the others will, too.
That’s why adding the probabilities perhaps overestimates the total likelihood of occurrence.
Yet on the other hand, if more than one of the factors is happening, then the simultaneous hits increase the likelihood of an exit decision in response. This is a countervailing factor in the other direction.
Let’s suppose the “exaggerate” and “underestimate” sides of the coin roughly cancel each other out. In that instance, we can just add the probabilities.
And where does that leave us?
A combined exit probability before 2029 of 62.7%
Before I ran these numbers, my rough guess had been about a 30% chance I wouldn’t live in the United States three years from now.
It was sort of shocking to put a risk modeling lens on the variables in play, and see that my own personal risk management and utility preferences mapped onto our current dictatorship situation produce such a high combined exit probability.
How’s that for a polycrisis?
What do the numbers look like for you?
What would you do if, in less than four years, there was a greater than 60% chance you’d make the biggest decision of your life, something you don’t want to do, but might choose to do anyway?
Would you ignore it?
Would you act like it was a certainty, although there was a 40% chance it won’t happen?
How would you engage productively with your immediate circumstances in the next few years, when they might not be long term?
I don’t have simple answers to these questions.
But I am making haste to prepare, while hoping to be as slow and deliberate as possible about actually pulling the exit trigger.
I sprint to build the optionality to leave.
I try to make myself financially, logistically, and emotionally resilient against the various risks.
I also focus intensely on being grateful for each day, week, and month that it it still the right decision to keep living here in Midwestern City. On the terrain my family has made its home since 1635.
But the time may come that it will be time to go.
Each day I keep studying Spanish. Each day I work on controlling the controllables.
Each day, I try to appreciate the theological insight in all of this.
False certainty about how your life might unfold is a form of idolatry, which, in turn, we see through history is often the catalyst of so many other sins.
Maybe, in the very best case, while the regime dismantles the country we thought we knew, we can be growing into the type of people we should always have striven to be.
More humble, more flexible, more empathetic, more kind, more calm, more resilient, more open to change, and more adaptable.
In the seventeenth century at Ilkeston in Derbyshire, in the English Midlands, there was a young man with a family, William Beardsley, my great-x-10 grandfather.
He chose to leave almost everything he knew behind, boarded the “Planter,” a tiny little ship, and crossed a large ocean, never to see all his familiar places again.
His decision changed the life course of thousands of his descendants, who grew up to be Americans, rather than Englishmen.
I wonder how he looked at all of his situation three to five years before he got on the ship?
Maybe, if we could meet, we’d understand each other well. I like to think so.
great article and lots to consider. my thinking is much like your own. but how, specifically, do you prepare? financially & otherwise?